How Third Party Candidates Will Help TEA Party

I’m sure you read the title of this blog and scratched your head.  I assure you I am not crazy.

In 1992 and 1996 Republican candidates who leaned moderate were defeated by Bill Clinton.  In neither election did Clinton get 50% of the popular vote.  In fact, George W. Bush and Al Gore both came closer to 50% in 2000 than Clinton ever got.  In both the 1992 and 1996 elections, Republicans were hijacked by the third party candidacy of Ross Perot.    Perot was a spunky, debt-conscious candidate who predicted many of the troubles we face today.  Though some conservatives would have preferred Perot to George H. W. Bush and Bob Dole, it was from these elections that we had ingrained in our minds that a vote for a third party was a vote for the Democrat.

In 2006 the electorate shifted.  We had RINO Republicans in office, who had easily ridden George W. Bush’s coat-tails and the architecture of Karl Rove.  Conservatives did not like these RINOs and moderates couldn’t tell the RINOs from the Democrats and didn’t like our hundred billion dollar deficits.  In 2006 conservatives stayed home.  Or, in some cases, they voted for the third party candidate.

In this case, I am not talking about a conservative third party candidate, but I am talking about the 2006 re-election of Joseph Lieberman in Connecticut as an independent.  Joe had lost to his radical leftist opponent Ned Lamont, and decided to leave the Democrat party and run on a third party ticket.  In this race, moderate Republicans dumped their no-chance-in-hell (or any other blue state) candidate and voted with the moderate Lieberman.  Lieberman won.

Lieberman’s victory against the radical wing of his party, assisted by moderate Republicans, has given hope to moderates everywhere.  When Marco Rubio went from double digits behind Charlie Crist to the obvious winner, Crist dropped the Republican party and ran as a third party candidate.  Rubio still leads him and his opponent by double digits in a state Democrats gave to Obama in 2008, and the other Senators are a true blue Democrat and a moderate Crist appointed Republican.

You can’t blame RINOs for being upset about their upset losses to TEA party candidates.  Basically, they have been fired by the people in their party.  They didn’t expect it; their bosses in the party kept telling them they were awesome.  Crist will be giving up his Jim Greer expense account and his wife won’t be able to use tax dollars to go to Disney World or partying in NYC anymore.  Murkowski won’t get the lobbyist attention anymore.  Castle is left friendless and embarrassed in Delaware.

So what has changed since 1996?  Now the moderate is the third party.  Instead of the conservative vote being split between the candidate who can win and the candidate who we like, while the moderates and Democrats give the Democrat the victory, conservatives will be united against a candidates whose electorate will be split between radical Democrats and moderates.  Did I mention that Rubio holds a double digit lead over Crist and Meek?

Gallup shows that conservatives make up the largest group percentage-wise in this country.  They accounted for 40% back in 2009 when the deficit was only a trillion dollars and people still thought everything was Bush’s fault.  Moderates accounted for 35% and liberals took 21%.  That leaves “don’t knows” of 4%.  When Republicans were acting like moderates (safe word for mildly liberal), Democrats won.  Why not?  It was 50% to 40%.  Moderates looked at both parties, asked what’s the difference, and then voted for the party that wasn’t pretending to be something it’s not.

But split the liberal and moderate vote, and conservative TEA Party Republicans have a 5% advantage over their RINO opponents.  Still think I’m crazy?  The latest Reuters-Ipsos poll has Marco Rubio at 40%, Charlie Crist at 26% and Kendrick Meek at 21%. Sounds like Gallup got it about right.

So, Conservatives, call Lisa Murkowski and Mike Castle and encourage them to start write-in campaigns.  The moderates in this country need someone to vote for.

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